Currently there are approximately 490 megawatts being provided through wind farms in Greece and another 1,500 to 2,000 MW is expected to be installed by 2010. But if Greece has to meet its EU emission cutting targets, its wind farms will have to churn out another 6000 to 9000 MW by then. EU law states that by 2010, 20% of Greece’s electricity outputs need to be derived from renewable energy sources, which is a significant increase from the current 12%.
A lot of the country’s growth is due to Greece’s neighbors to the north, the Balkans. The Balkans represent the new frontier, where investment opportunities abound. Greece’s relationship with these adjacent nations began in the 1990s when the old communist order broke down. This presented a doorway for growth and development. The country has absorbed hundreds of thousands of immigrants, particularly from the Balkans. The Greek strategy behind the friendly front has yielded economic gains. Greece is involved in various transportation and energy related projects in the Balkan countries, and Greek state-inspired public sector investments have been strategically placed in the telecommunications and banking industries in the Balkan countries. Investments in these key areas can be easily manipulated to gain control of domestic manufacturing and services to benefit the Greek private sector. The expansion of Greek companies in the Balkans leads to better profits and higher returns for their shareholders.
To further this relationship, Greece launched a five-year $670 million development aid initiative in 2002 called the Hellenic Plan for the Economic Reconstruction of the Balkans. Albania is one of the country’s biggest trade partners. Currently, 16 special Collaboration Agreements are being set in place with Albania, eight with Bosnia-Herzegovina, nine with Bulgaria, eight with Croatia, five with the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), seven with Serbia-Montenegro and six with Romania.
Greece’s investments in the Balkans, as of 2009, stood at more than $20 billion. The investments have generated more than 200,000 jobs throughout the Balkans, from Albania to Moldova, where around 3,500 Greek companies have an active presence. A significant 10-12% of the exports from Montenegro, Macedonia, Bulgaria and Albania go to Greece. Further, Greek investors accounted for 14%-15% of foreign direct investment in the five Balkan countries of Albania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Macedonia and Romania in 2008. However, with Greece now battling a prolonged recession and a mammoth debt crisis, its investments and trade with the Balkan region may decline in the future. Albania, which is the home country of nearly two-thirds of Greece’s migrant labor force, will probably be hit the hardest as workers’ remittances from Greece are bound to drop. Bulgaria and Romania also account for a sizable chunk of migrant workers in Greece.
Economy crumbles as recession takes its toll
The past decade saw the Greek government increasing its expenditures on such a massive scale that public sector wages virtually doubled during the period. In fact, aggressive wage hikes boosted public consumption and propelled the economy to an annual average growth rate of 4.2% between 2000 and 2008, which was significantly higher than the 2.4% average expansion between 1990 and 2000. But as Greece’s current debt woes prove, the rapid expansion came at a heavy price.
The Greek government’s budget deficit has risen dramatically over the past 10 years — from 3.7% of GDP in 1998 to 13.6% of GDP in 2009, which is one of the highest levels in Europe and more than four times the prescribed target for Euro-zone countries. Greece’s gross public debt concomitantly ballooned to a formidable 115.1% of GDP in early 2010 from 94.5% in 1998.
Various factors have put Greece in this quagmire. The country’s fiscal indiscipline and receding revenues accentuated the effect of the global financial crisis. Further, the nation has a history of excessive military spending, the highest in the EU and second highest in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) after the United States. The substantial Greek defense spending, which is around 3.3% of GDP compared to the average of 1.7% for other European NATO countries, has its roots in the nation’s troubled relations with neighboring Turkey. Widespread tax evasion, which has been whittling away tax revenues, has also contributed to the soaring budget deficit. It is estimated that the government coffers are robbed of at least €20 billion ($25.35 billion) every year due to tax evasion.
Unlike its Euro-zone peers, Greece may not emerge from the recession any time soon. The country slipped into recession in the first quarter of 2009 and is likely to remain in a downturn for the next two years. With the economy shrinking 2% in 2009, the Greek government is bracing for a protracted slowdown, expecting a sharper 4% contraction in 2010 and 2.6% in 2011. Not surprisingly, the unemployment rate too has soared. The jobless rate sprang to a six-year high of 11.3% in January 2010 compared to 8.8% a year ago.
Emergency bailout given on strict austerity conditions
Straddled with a huge €300 billion ($400 billion) debt and helpless, Greece stood virtually on the brink of bankruptcy in early May 2010. There was widespread apprehension that if Greece defaulted, a contagion effect would first trample the other weaker members of the Euro zone before spreading to other parts of the globe. Greece’s debt crisis had already pummeled the euro and there was considerable unease among investors. Therefore, key European leaders and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) scrambled to put together a rescue package for Greece.
Consequently, the beleaguered economy was offered a €110 billion ($142.2 billion) lifeline. This bailout package, spread over a period of three years, has come with strict conditions. It requires the Greek government to slash public spending as well as bolster tax revenues. Ironically, the current socialist government led by Prime Minister George Papandreou came to power in October 2009 on promises of wage and pension increases, as well as more support for the poor and the middle class. But the debt burden and the ensuing aid package have compelled the government to implement unprecedented austerity measures instead.
Acknowledging the intensity of the crisis on its fiscal front, the Greek government has announced a slew of measures to restrain spending and bring down the budget deficit to less than 3% of GDP by 2014. The measures, which have sparked widespread public outrage, include:
- Pay cuts for public sector workers
- A freeze on annual bonuses
- Extension of the retirement age
- Increase in the number of years of service required to be eligible for a pension; reduction in pensions to reflect workers’ average pay rather than the final salary
- Up to a 23% hike in Value Added Taxes
- 10% increase in indirect taxes
- Steps to tackle tax evasion as well as to bring untaxed illegal construction into the tax net
- In the longer term, government impetus to privatization
Further, the defense budget will be slashed by 6.6% in 2010 in a bid to bridge the deficit. Despite these measures, it is estimated that the national debt will spiral to 149% by 2013, before receding. Understandably, the austerity measures have spurred a series of public protests, agitations, demonstrations and strikes, adding to the government’s consternation. Moreover, the social unrest does not augur well for the tourism industry. Revenues from tourism plunged 10% to $19.8 billion in 2009 and the prospects for 2010 are discouraging.
Gaping current account deficit a problem too
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