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Exports have always been one of the critical drivers of the Japanese economy, and the country has been consistently clocking a trade surplus since 1981. Not surprisingly, this robust trade performance has enabled Japan to have the second largest stock of foreign exchange reserves in the world. While the domestic economy is witnessing a paradigm shift towards the services sector, Japan’s external demand is still driven by manufacturing, as over 65% of its exports are comprised of transport equipment, electrical machinery, and general machinery.
Japan has also emerged as a global financial center, with the Tokyo Stock Exchange as the second largest stock exchange in the world, next to the New York Stock Exchange.
Stumbling blocks slacken pace
Until the mid-1980s, Japan's economy enjoyed favorable conditions and stable growth, with low inflation and a low unemployment rate. As the economy matured, growth rates averaged 5% in the 1970s and 4% in the 1980s. However, the appreciation of the yen in 1985 rendered the export sector uncompetitive, causing a moderation in growth from 4.4% in 1985 to 2.9% in 1986. The government tried to provide an economic stimulus with a drastic easing of the monetary policy, through deep rate cuts. This action boosted investment as well as corporate profits, and these conducive conditions caused excessive funds to flow into the stock market and the real estate sector, thereby causing abnormally inflated increases in asset values. The government, in order to tackle this financial bubble, subsequently followed a stringent monetary policy and increased rates.
Following the rate hikes, stock prices plummeted in 1990, followed by sharp declines in real estate prices. The Nikkei stock market index fell more than 60% between 1989 and 1992, and real estate prices plunged a whopping 80% between 1991 and 1998. The gross domestic product (GDP) of the economy stagnated in the 1990s, turning negative in 1998. By 2000, the unemployment rate rose from 2.1% in 1991 to 4.7%. The financial system of the country also witnessed an unprecedented collapse- huge bad debts were created in the loan portfolios of financial institutions because corporate borrowers suffered serious losses due to declining stocks and real estate prices.
To revive the sagging economy, the government initiated fiscal stimulus packages or spending programs totaling over 100 trillion yen ($947 billion) in the 1990s, resulting in the skyrocketing of the gross public debt and the budget deficit. To foster economic recovery, Japan also followed an easing of its monetary policy, with short-term rates reduced to 0 between 2001 and 2005. After bottoming out in 2002, the Japanese economy staged an export-led recovery, ending an extended period of economic stagnation and breaking a vicious cycle of falling prices and financial instability. GDP grew by 2.6% in 2005 and 2.2% in 2006, marginally slowing to 2% in 2007. This expansion is likely to continue in the next two years with GDP expected to grow between 1.5-2%. The unemployment rate also dropped from 5.4% in 2002 to 3.8% in May 2007. As a testimony to its resilience, the Japanese economy weathered this prolonged deceleration and has retained its status as the second largest economy in the world.
Braving the perils of a globalized world
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