In Kuala Lumpur, a city with a population of 1.6 million, the tallest twin buildings in the world, the Petronas Towers, represent Malaysia’s soaring ambitions.
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Emerging Asian power seeks global status
Today, Malaysia is an active participant in Southeast Asia. Well-endowed with natural resources, its rich tropical forests, endless beaches, and cultural diversity attract a wide number of tourists from around the world. Penang, Langkawi, Borneo and Kota Kinabalu remain prime destinations. Geographically, the country lies close to major world trade routes, bringing early exposure to a burgeoning global economy. Malaysian plantations cultivate cocoa, timber, pepper, pineapple and sugar cane, while rice paddies dot the northern reaches.
Its indigenous labor workforce has been supplemented by immigrants who continue to contribute to Malaysia’s growth. The economy has always been exceptionally open to external influences such as globalization. Foreign capital has played a major role throughout.
Recession in 2009 hampers growth
As an export-dependent nation, Malaysia was severely affected by the global recession in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008. The country’s export sector endured a torrid year in 2009, after overseas shipments slumped 16.6%, the first such annual decline for a predominantly strong area of growth. The government is hoping that 2010 will be different. International Trade and Industry Minister Mustapa Mohamed has stated that as the global economy picks up, he expects exports for the year to expand as much as 6% to 7%, topping the previous forecast of 3.5%. What dragged Malaysia’s economy down even further was a 5.5% drop in fixed investment, as panicky firms canceled or deferred investment decisions. The Malaysian economy contracted 1.7% in 2009 amid the slump in the export sector.
Also, for the first time in almost four years, the Malaysian central bank raised interest rates in 2010, stating that the nation’s economic recovery was now firmly established. The central bank, like most other monetary authorities around the world, had reduced interest rates periodically during the recessionary period to stimulate economic growth.
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Even Prime Minister Najib Razak has expressed confidence that the Malaysian economy would grow by around 6% in 2010. The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER), the country’s leading economic think-tank, is less optimistic. The Institute warned that although Malaysia has emerged from a technical recession (2009), the global economic recovery is proceeding at a slow pace, and might affect the export-oriented country’s progress.
As an oil and gas exporter, Malaysia stands to profit from higher world energy prices. However, as the recession in 2009 showed, that can work against Malaysia too. If demand from some of its main export markets crumbles, especially the U.S. or European markets, then Malaysia will again struggle. In 2009, agriculture grew at a mere 0.9% (Source: ADB) as crashing palm oil and rubber prices led to a drop in production. After depreciating during the first three months of 2009, the ringgit has once again started to appreciate. The ringgit gained 1.2% against the dollar in 2009, and further appreciated by 1% in the first two months of 2010. As Malaysia learned during the recent recessionary phase, dependency on a few export markets might stall its export growth and consequent economic progress.
Forecasts for growth and inflation
- The World Bank expects the Malaysian economy to grow 5.7% in 2010.
- The ADB anticipates a 5.3% rise in GDP for 2010 and 5% in 2011. Inflation to touch 2.4%.
- The IMF predicts 4.7% growth in 2010.
- MIER expects 3.7% growth in 2010 and 2.2% inflation rate
In its forecast, the World Bank warned that the Malaysian government would have to rapidly implement economic reforms announced last year, saying that growth would stall otherwise.
It appears that the government is listening. Prime Minister Najib Razak has repeatedly stressed that the downturn offered Malaysia an opportunity to adopt a new model that is based more on innovation, creativity and value-added activities. Among other ambitions, his goal is to increase domestic demand, making Malaysia more self-reliant. One way of increasing domestic demand is to boost consumers’ spending power. And Najib offered exactly that by cutting income taxes for the second straight year in 2009. The Prime Minister also unveiled a New Economic Model, which advocates a change in Malaysia’s old policies. This new model will act as the foundation for the 10th Malaysia Plan to be released in June 2010. Najib wants to privatize state-owned companies and improve their efficiency, remove subsidies, however popular they may be, and try to remove any hurdles that may hamper foreign investment.
The stage is set
Vision 2020 hoped for a strong and confident Malaysia, a country not only powerful in the ASEAN region, but ready to embrace the world stage. But neighboring Singapore has left Malaysia a little behind in the economic stakes. Now, it is up to Malaysia to prove that it can make that one important step up from an emerging economy to a developed one. After surviving the fallout the global recession, Malaysia is hoping that its New Economic Model and the 10th Malaysia Plan for 2011-2015 will show the way for a bright future. The past has laid the foundation. Now the future needs to be realized.
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