Economy
The rollercoaster ride of Mexican economy
A country tattered by foreign rule and political instability, Mexico found it difficult to realize its full economic potential. Silver mining formed the backbone of the economy before independence, but the fight for freedom left the mining sector in shambles. Invasions by the French, and the Mexican-American war kept foreign investors away from the country.
Yet, subsequent rule by President Benito Juarez and Porfiriato Diaz opened the doors of economic modernization. Tax and tariff structures were regulated and infrastructure and communications were improved. Foreign investors were attracted, giving impetus to the mining sector, and the construction of a rail link between the U.S. and Mexico. But widespread resentment brewed among the countrymen, as most of the development remained limited to the Northern areas of the country. The Mexican revolution that subsequently erupted and the ensuing depression wiped out any gains made before the period of revolution. The era of the 1930s saw a turnaround, beginning with the agricultural sector and slowly spreading to the manufacturing sector. Although the country maintained an inward looking economic policy, growth during the period 1940-1970 continued at a healthy average of 3-4%. By the end of the 1960s, Mexico had achieved self reliance in food crops, most consumer goods and steel, with diversified exports. Capital goods required for production remained the main imports.
Fiscal mismanagement by the ruling Presidents and the oil shock of 1973 hurled the Mexican economy to the brink of recession. However, the savior came in new oil discoveries in 1976, and the petroleum industry became the mainstay of a rescued Mexican economy. Income from rising oil exports at hefty prices were spent on energy, transportation, and basic industries. But on the flip side, agricultural growth fell drastically and the peso became overvalued. What’s more, the government has increased the tariffs on all imports to protect its domestic industries. This has cost Mexico its competitiveness. Foreign debt was incurred to finance domestic expansion activities, and the growth rate, which clocked an impressive average of 7.2% in the 60s, tumbled to 5.2% during the 1970s.
A slump in oil prices in 1981, flawed policies, increasing interest rates, and an overvalued peso battered the economy into a recession. This led to a Balance of Payment crisis and flight of foreign capital. The government trimmed all public spending to bring the economy to normalcy, but the economic growth for the decade averaged a meager 1.1%. The economic crisis resulted in large scale unemployment and an exodus of people to urban areas and to the U.S.. To stabilize the economy, major policy reforms were undertaken, such as the privatization of nationalized industries, deregulation of the economy, and reduction of foreign debt, which yielded results. A free trade agreement (NAFTA) between the , Canada and Mexico signed in the year 1994, ushered foreign investment back into the country.
The country had just risen from a major economic crisis and the future looked extremely bright with NAFTA in place. But structural imbalances within the country led to the Mexican Peso Crisis of 1994-95. Maintaining that a strong peso was required to sustain a healthy economy, the Central Bank of Mexico mopped up huge dollar reserves to keep inflation at bay. New foreign investments resulting from NAFTA caused a trade deficit, which was further financed by more capital inflows, in the form of short term bonds issued, to be repaid in dollars. Presidential elections in 1994 witnessed the assassination of two candidates, and also saw an uprising in the southern town of Chiapas, which was hit hardest by unemployment due to falling exports fueled by a strong peso. International investors perceived the situation in Mexico to be highly unstable and began withdrawal of funds. The situation was aggravated by the redemption of short-term dollar bonds. The foreign reserves in the country fell from $27 billion in February 1994 to $11 billion by mid December 1994, prompting the government to embrace a devaluation of the peso. The peso plummeted by almost 50%.
A rescue in the form of a $50 billion loan package from the U.S., Canada, the IMF, the Bank of International Settlements and Latin American countries, insured that Mexico would emerge from this economic crisis quickly.
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