
With the onset of the deep downturn, the economic challenge of a labor shortage has given way to the problem of rising unemployment
As the global financial crisis took the world economy by storm, its repercussions dealt a blow to the Netherlands economy as well, which has strong trade and financial linkages with the global economy. The Netherlands entered recession in the last quarter of 2008, a quarter after the broader 16-member Euro-zone. As the global economy sputtered, Dutch exports, a driving force of the economy, declined sharply, shaving off nearly 3% from GDP growth. In 2009, the Netherlands economy is expected to contract by 4.5% before returning to a modest growth of 0.75% in 2010. Exports are forecasted to shrink nearly 12% in 2009. This is the deepest slowdown that the Dutch economy has encountered since the World War II.
Households are facing an erosion of their wealth and purchasing power, a result of falling share prices, dividends, as well as a drop in average house prices. Having lost about €60 billion ($90.5 billion) since the onset of the crisis towards the end of 2008, domestic consumption in the Netherlands has taken a beating and is expected to fall about 0.25% in 2009, despite subdued inflation levels.
Business investment also substantially backtracked, as enterprises were confronted with tumbling domestic as well as external demand. Capacity utilization is expected to take a hit in 2009, bringing down labor productivity. Business investments are estimated to contract 11% for 2009 as a whole. While traditionally, the country has experienced a shortage in its labor market, it is now facing rising levels of unemployment as economic activity ebbed. The unemployment rate has climbed from 2.8% in 2008, to 3.7% towards the end of 2009. However, the economy still sports one of the lowest unemployment rates in the EU. Inflation has also substantially diminished from 2.2% in 2008 and is estimated to clock below 1% for 2009 as a whole. Higher levels of unemployment coupled with lower inflation levels are also likely to have a dampening impact on the overall wage levels.
In order to support the economy, the government announced an economic stimulus package of €6 billion ($9.05 billion) which included fiscal measures aimed at improving corporate liquidity. In addition, a sum of €20 billion ($30.19 billion) was injected in the money markets to guarantee interbank transfers and hence restore investor and consumer confidence. Another €200 billion ($301.94 billion) was offered as loan guarantees to the Dutch banking sector. As the economic crisis took its toll on the globally integrated Dutch financial sector, the country nationalized two of its major banks to prevent their collapse, and provided funds to support a leading global insurance company as well as a reputed financial institution.
Higher government spending and receding revenues due to declining economic activity, have taken a toll on the economy’s fiscal front. While the Netherlands had recorded healthy budget surpluses during 2006-08, it is expected to clock a large deficit of 4.5% in 2009, which is likely to worsen further to about 6% of GDP in 2010. The issue of an aging population has also cast a cloud over fiscal sustainability, as aging-related expenditures such as health, old-age care and pensions are touted to increase steeply. The challenge confronting the Dutch economy will be to trim aging-related expenditures by such measures as raising the retirement age and increasing user-fees of health services. Sustained productivity increases in health-care services would also curtail spending in this area. To ease the fiscal deficit, the maximum duration of unemployment benefits could be restricted.
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