Steady progress to reclaim its past glory
Economic growth in Peru has been exceptional in recent years and it is now one of the best performing economies globally. Despite the fall in prices of export commodities, Peru is well positioned to sustain the expansion.
When most developed economies are in recession following the global financial crisis and many developing economies are struggling to keep their heads above water, Peru is in an enviable position. It is now the fastest growing economy in South America and one of the best performing globally.
Following the repeated boom and bust cycles throughout much of its history, Peru has successfully initiated economic reforms over the last couple of decades. These measures have led to restructuring and diversification of the economy, improved financial management, and increased trade relations with the rest of the world. An active member of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation or APEC and an associate member of the regional trade group Mercosur, Peru has forged or is currently in negotiations to finalize trade pacts with many large economies including the U.S. and China. The country also has a very close economic relationship with neighboring Brazil. An ambitious project under consideration to build roads through Peru to the Pacific coast will make Asian markets more accessible for Brazilian products. Peru is also encouraging Brazilian companies to establish manufacturing facilities in its territory to take advantage of the many trade pacts it has with major economies.
These efforts at domestic reforms and external trade expansion have paid off handsomely over the last few years when Peru outperformed the rest of Latin America in economic growth. Fueled in part by the spectacular surge in global commodity prices, average annual growth has exceeded 6% over the last six years. Government finances have never been in a better shape, with the country achieving a fiscal surplus last year. Currently, domestic savings have steadily increased to nearly 20%, and Peru continues to enjoy an investment grade credit rating when some of the other Latin American countries are being downgraded. Foreign investments exceeded $5 billion last year and exports totaled nearly $20 billion.
The growth buoyancy since the commodity price boom has spread to the domestic sector, which has added to the economy’s vibrancy. The last decade has seen the growth of an affluent middle class which has driven up private consumption growth and continues to power the economy even now. Besides, Peru has diversified its export basket to include textiles and farm produce like artichokes and mangoes.
However, the deep correction in global commodity prices is bound to pinch the Peruvian economy as resource exports continue to be a major contributor to economic growth. The country is one of the top global producers of silver, copper, zinc, tin, and gold. Prices of most of these metals are well below the record revenues seen in recent years. Investments and job creation in the country’s mining sector will decline until the global economy recovers. This will also lead to a fall in government revenues from mining royalty and taxes in the near future and cut the resources available for public spending.
The longer term challenges are more daunting. Despite the rapid economic growth in recent years, nearly half of the population is poor and a fifth live in extreme poverty. This wide disparity in income distribution is already a cause of unrest in many areas and, if left unaddressed, may worsen in the future. The disparities between the urban and rural areas are also acute and the gains of economic development are yet to reach the indigenous and tribal people. Though nearly 90% of the population is literate, the quality of education is poor. The same can be said of healthcare which is markedly better in urban areas.
Peru has set itself an ambitious target to emerge as a developed nation by 2021, in time for the bicentennial celebration of its independence as a nation. Despite the global economic turmoil which clouds the outlook, Peru is better placed than ever to regain the glory of its splendid past. The Inca emperors were considered to be the descendants of the sun god. Sustained efforts to achieve economic progress and social development will restore this great country and its proud people to their rightful place under the sun.
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