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Aggregate output declined at an annualized 3.4% during the second quarter, more than expected, on lower capital investments and construction activity. The central bank’s rate hike earlier this year to tame inflation has restricted domestic demand.
The economy, which has not been hit by a recession in more than two decades, appears well-placed for the near-future as well. The rebound in the value of commodity exports should reflect in corporate profits, country’s GDP and tax receipts, giving an overall boost to the economy’s prospects.
Renewed political uncertainties have delayed some of the reforms and the expected recovery in domestic demand. Brazil’s economy shrunk again during the third quarter, as investments fell more than 8% from a year ago. Slowing inflation allowed the Brazilian central bank to cut its benchmark interest rate from a record high in October.
The Canadian economy rebounded during the third quarter of this year, helped by increased oil production and strong gains in consumer spending. The central bank expects the Canadian economy to end this year with growth of close to 1.5%.
The economy declined during the second quarter, compared to the first three months of this year, as construction activity slowed and private investments remained subdued. The central bank had increased its benchmark rate twice during the second half of last year, and has held the rate unchanged so far this year.
In the second quarter, GDP grew 6.7% from the same period in 2015, beating projections by a small margin. The rebalancing in the Chinese economy gained traction but private investment remained lackluster and the real estate rally slowed down.
The IMF has lowered its growth forecasts for Colombia to 2.2% this year, and 2.7% in 2017. The economy expanded 2% during the second quarter of this year, from a year ago. Though inflation has slowed, Colombia’s central bank left its benchmark rate unchanged in September.
The economy grew at a 2.6% annual rate during the second quarter of 2016, helped by stable household consumption and robust foreign demand, according to an article in EconoTimes. With the exception of the construction sector that attracted little investment, trade and consumer spending contributed to economic growth.
IMF approves $12-billion loan for Egypt in return for the government’s commitment to increase its revenues and implement painful reforms. Core inflation reached a multi-year high of 15.7% in October.
France’s GDP did not expand at all during the second quarter but the country succeeded in improving job creation as its unemployment rate fell below 10% for the first time since 2012.
Output increased 0.4% between the first quarter and the second, beating forecasts. Exports rose 1.2% during the period. The budget surplus expanded in the first half of this year to touch 1.2% of GDP.
Notwithstanding the quarterly numbers, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras expressed hope that the economy will be back to growth in 2016. The government earlier estimated a 0.3% contraction in the economy this year. Mr. Tsipras said the increase in the number of summer tourists and the efficient utilization of European Union funds will boost the economy’s prospects.
The economy grew 0.6% during the third quarter of 2016, helped by the resurgence in stock trading and the property market that gave a boost to consumer spending. While domestic demand was fueled by a steady jobs market, exports too picked up as regional trade showed signs of stabilizing.
Prime Minister Viktor Orban proposed changes to the tax code and education system to boost the economy’s competitiveness. Both corporate and income taxes would be cut, Mr. Orban said.High corporate taxes, especially in sectors such as banking, have affected Hungary’s standing among foreign firms in recent years.
Normal seasonal rains and government wage hikes boosted the country’s consumption outlook. Industrial and manufacturing activity showed a declining trend in the second quarter.
The economy gained momentum during the second quarter, expanding 4% from the first quarter and 5.2% from a year ago. Higher household consumption, government spending and commodity prices contributed to the performance.
In the third quarter, GDP grew 3.2% from the same quarter a year ago. Capital investments rocketed 13.5% but consumer spending grew at a slower pace compared to the second quarter and exports declined.
GDP in the country did not grow between April and June, signaling that Italy’s economic recovery is still extremely fragile. Lending in the economy was severely crimped due to the bad loan problem in the banking sector.
The economy advanced 2.2% on an annualized basis in the third quarter of 2016, helped by a rebound in exports. While the headline numbers that came in way above analyst estimates were encouraging, capital investment and household spending were flat during the period.
At the end of June, GDP inched up 0.7% from the previous quarter and 4% from a year ago. The second quarter turned out to be the fifth one in a row the growth rate declined on an annual basis.
The Mexican government has cut its growth forecasts for the current year after the economy expanded at a slower than expected pace for the second quarter. The government now expects the economy to expand 2% to 2.6% this year, down from an earlier forecast of between 2.2% to 3.2%.
The economy expanded an annual 3.6% in the second quarter of 2016. Meanwhile, the country’s dairy industry that has been going through a rough patch is witnessing a nascent recovery as farmers in Europe and North America reduce output.
The new government is moving ahead with initiatives that are aimed at boosting aggregate growth to 5% by 2018. The economy is expected to grow 4% this year and 4.8% in 2017, according to the most recent estimates from the government.
GDP grew 7% from a year ago and 1.8% from the previous quarter.
The incumbent government’s generous social welfare program has also not helped the growth story. What’s more, without commensurate economic growth, the Law and Justice Party government will find it tough to justify its social spending at the expense of the country’s budget.
With the OPEC production cap deal in place, crude oil prices are expected to recover and help economies such as Qatar.
Based on a Putin-Trump cordial exchange during the election, Russia appears to believe that sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the European Union following the country’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 will be lifted. While this perception may be premature, the effect has been somewhat beneficial to the Russian businesses and its economy in the short term.
The economy grew a meager 0.6% on a year-on-year basis in the third quarter. However, factory activity registered an unexpected increase in the month of September, helped by a 6.7% year-on-year surge in manufacturing output. Despite the uptick in manufacturing, Singapore’s overall industrial production has remained sluggish in 2016.
GDP increased 0.2% between the second quarter and the third, lagging estimates and falling significantly short of the impressive 3.5% quarterly expansion recorded in the second quarter.
According to the Bank of Korea, the South Korean economy expanded 0.7% from the first quarter and 3.2% from the second quarter of 2015.
During the second quarter, the Spanish economy climbed 0.7% from the first quarter. The unemployment rate fell from 20.9% to 20% during the period.
The Taiwanese economy expanded a modest 0.7% in the second quarter on an annual basis, ending a long phase of yearly contractions.
During the second quarter, the Thai economy expanded 0.8% from the first quarter and 3.5% from the second quarter of 2015. Public spending soared 18% and tourist arrivals jumped 8.2% from a year ago.
The after-effects of the attempted coup in July still seem to weigh on the economy, gauging by the slowdown in factory activity. Industrial output fell 3.1% in September from the year-ago period, a Bloomberg news report said.
The economy recorded a reasonably encouraging third quarter, with its non-oil sector clocking 2016’s fastest pace of quarterly growth in the period.
GDP expanded as much as 0.6% during the second quarter but the outlook looks uncertain as manufacturing and services activity contracted significantly in July.
Expectations about a large fiscal stimulus program from the incoming Trump administration have brightened the growth outlook. The new administration is also expected to ease regulatory restrictions, especially on the banking and financial services sector, as well as reduce taxes for businesses. These policies could give a short-term boost to aggregate economic growth for the next several quarters.
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© Thomas White International, Ltd. 2017